Source: San Jose Mercury News, Press Enterprise, Sacramento Bee
In a finding that could foreshadow a difficult political battle for a proposed constitutional ban on gay marriage, a new Field Poll says more California voters oppose Proposition 8 than favor it.

By a 51% to 42% margin, voters appear ready to vote No on Proposition 8, the "Limit on marriage" constitutional amendment.

The new poll, released today, is the first independent statewide measure of public opinion on the proposed constitutional ban since gay men and lesbians began marrying legally in California on June 16. It was also the first time Field Research has polled voters on the official ballot description of Proposition 8. A narrow majority of 51 percent of 672 likely voters said they would vote against a ban, while 42 percent said they would vote for it.

"Very few initiatives in the history of the Field Poll have started out behind and come from behind to be approved," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. "The fact that (Proposition 8) is behind does not bode well for its chances."

The poll results were announced two days after the California Supreme Court rejected what is likely to be the final pre-vote legal challenge to the November ballot measure that would restore the state's ban on same-sex marriage.

The court on Wednesday rejected a bid by civil rights groups to remove the measure from the November ballot. Without comment, the justices unanimously refused to hear the legal challenge, filed last month by Equality California, a group opposed to Proposition 8.

The ballot measure would amend the state Constitution to confine marriage to a union between a man and a woman. Civil rights groups had argued that the measure was legally flawed and would conflict with the state Supreme Court's ruling in May striking down California's previous ban on same-sex marriage.

The Field Poll found relatively high voter awareness of Proposition 8 among the state's voting electorate. Statewide 62% of likely voters report having seen or heard something about the proposed constitutional amendment, according to the Field Poll's report.

When all voters regardless of any prior awareness are read Prop. 8's official ballot description, 51% say they would vote No, while 42% would vote Yes.

Likely voters' preferences on Prop. 8 are the same as in Field Poll survey in May. That poll found that, for the first time in three decades, more people supported marriage for same-sex couples.

Opposition to Prop. 8 is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area, while support for the measure is greatest in the Central Valley. Likely voters in the survey area that includes Riverside and San Bernardino counties are almost evenly split.

The poll shows less of a generational gap on the issue than in past surveys. The biggest opposition to the measure came not just from the youngest demographic (55 percent of those 18 to 29 years old), but also baby boomers (57 percent of those 50 to 64 years old).

But the poll results highlight a continuing deep rift on the issue two months after the California Supreme Court's May decision to overturn the 2000 law that defined marriage as between a man and a woman.

Republican voters, those who live in the state's inland areas, and those who are older, Protestant or men are more likely to support Prop. 8.

Democrats and independent voters, coastal residents, women, baby boomers and people under 30 are more likely to oppose the initiative.

"It's a huge difference, almost mirror images of one another," DiCamillo said of the split. "It's become magnified over the last 10 years."

The new poll and earlier Field results also suggest that some Californians who are uncomfortable with the concept of same-sex marriage still may not support changing the state constitution, DiCamillo said.

In that sense, Proposition 8 may face a steeper climb with voters than Proposition 22 did in 2000, when 61 percent of voters approved a statutory - not a constitutional - ban on same-sex marriage.

The May survey indicated that most voters were hesitant to change the state constitution on the issue. A majority also opposed changing the U.S. Constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage, the earlier poll found.

"I think there's a greater hurdle involved when you attempt to change the constitution," DiCamillo said.

Jennifer Kerns, a spokeswoman for the yes-on-Prop. 8 campaign, said she thinks support for the initiative and opposition to same-sex marriage is significantly higher than the poll has found.

In March 2000, 61 percent of voters backed Prop. 22. Earlier Field Polls showed support for that initiative in the low 50s.

"We believe the Field Poll understates support for our side by 7 to 10 points," Kerns said.

Steve Smith, the no-on-Prop. 8 campaign's senior consultant, said today's poll and the May findings mean most people are unwilling to limit marriage rights.

"From a campaign manager's perspective, trying to get to a yes vote when you're already 10 points behind is really difficult," he said.

The survey of 672 likely voters was conducted for several California media outlets. It took place July 8- 14 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Full article: Field Poll: Ban on gay marriage getting more opposition than support | Press Enterprise
Prop. 8 facing a fight | San Jose Mercury News
Field Poll: Gay marriage | Sacramento Bee Capitol Report
Supreme Court rejects bid to remove gay marriage ban measure from November ballot | San Jose Mercury News